Play for what you need.

I believe it is one of Kelsey’s themes, when all looks bad, to play for a lie of the cards that provides the right number of tricks.  And so, what is your line on this one?

North ♠ T953 ♥ 86 ♦ K5 ♣ AK863 South ♠ KQ ♥ AKT ♦ 76432 ♣ J42

West North East South P P 1♥ P P 2♣ P 3N

Playing in a Junior event, I had my bidding shoes on, so I bid a vul 3N opposite a passed hand, figuring that with the auction, I would know where all the cards were.

When dummy hit after a low heart lead (low, Jack), things were not looking good.  At the time, I thought the club suit lost, and looked for other ways to reach nine tricks.   I thought if RHO held AJ of spades, and LHO a single card in the A of diamonds, I could take 2 clubs, 1 diamond, 3 hearts and 3 spades.  The full hand:

Dealer: W Vul: NS		North
		♠	T953
		♥	86
		♦	K5
		♣	AK863
West				East
♠	J64			♠	A842
♥	742			♥	QJ953
♦	J98			♦	AQT
♣	Q975			♣	T
		South
		♠	KQ
		♥	AKT
		♦	76432
		♣	J42

As you can see, I failed miserably.  If West has 3 hearts and an Ace, modern players, especially juniors will raise.  Additionally, playing for exactly AJ of spades is a pretty slim chance.

Perhaps then, it is much more sensible to play for just 5 club tricks (to go with the expect 3 hearts and 1 spade).

How do you take 5 tricks with AK863 opposite J42?

There are 2 options.  Run the Jack to pin the T9 doubleton, or run the Jack to pin singleton T or 9, then return to hand and finesse again.  This is where our friend restricted choice comes in (suggesting that stiff T or 9 is more likely than exactly T9 doubleton), couple that with the knowledge that East has 5 hearts and probably 2 more aces (meaning he has less slots in his hand to hold more cards, increasing the chance of him having 1 not 2 clubs): so the pair of 4-1 breaks is the right one to play for.

In order to do this, after Jack of Clubs, Queen, King, T/9.  You return to the closed hand with a spade and must play a club to the SIX! (lest the 97 set up for a trick)  Now a heart to the ten, the last heart, and a club to the 8 yields 5 clubs 3 hearts and a spade.

Joel Wooldridge declared this hand in a different match, and found the winning route to +600.